January 22, 2021
Democrats Win the Trifecta: Control of Presidency, Senate and House
The margins are narrow—legislation will not be easy given the wide differences among Democrats ranging from far-left progressives to moderate centrists. But the January 5 Georgia run-off elections resulted in two newly-elected Democrats (Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff) to the Senate. That means that in 2021-2022 Democrats control the agenda at the White House and in both the Senate and House.
Here are the numbers as of January 10, 2021:
Presidency: Joseph R. Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th president of the United States on January 20.
A moderate Democrat, Biden got some eight million more votes than incumbent Donald Trump—who himself got more votes than anyone, other than Biden, in history. President-Elect Biden faces significant challenges as he begins his four-year term. His majorities in both the House and Senate are razor-thin. His fellow Democrats continually struggle to find consensus between their far-left progressive flank and those moderates who are more centrist. He has a history of working with GOP lawmakers on compromise proposals, but the toxic partisanship of the last decade (or more) has not been eliminated.
Senate: In the Senate, the partisan split is 50-50, with Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. That gives control of the agenda to the Democrats.
The 50-50 split in the Senate, with the tie-breaker coming from the Democratic vice president, allows no margin for intra-caucus disagreement. That means centrists and Republicans of a mind to negotiate will have great influence. It also means the GOP will have the power to stop Democratic initiatives that must meet the filibuster-proof 60-vote threshold, or that do not win unanimous Democratic support on those votes that require only a simple majority.
House of Representatives: The House now has 222 Democrats and 211 Republicans. There is one vacancy, due to a death from COVID of a newly-elected Republican from Louisiana (a seat likely to continue to be held by the GOP after the seat is filled). There is still one seat, New York’s 22nd Congressional District, that is not yet decided. There is a 29-vote difference between the Republican who is leading and the incumbent Democrat, with the court reviewing hundreds of disputed ballots.
The current 222-211 House split means a maximum potential of 222-213 for Republicans or 224-211 for Democrats. That means Democrats can lose only five or six votes on any partisan measure. Again, compromise-minded Republicans can shape legislation. Or, the GOP can stay united to kill Democratic proposals that do not win near-unanimous support from the Democratic caucus.
Prospects: Opinions on what to expect are mixed, but most insiders agree that 2021 will bring some of each of three kinds of legislative initiatives:
(1) Proposals that have bipartisan support—an example could be the bipartisan generation two pension bill that was offered late last year by the leaders of the House Ways & Means Committee (and viewed favorably by both GOP and Democratic Senators); or perhaps a new coronavirus aid bill
(2) “Reconciliation” legislation (more on what that means below) that will require only 51 votes to pass the Senate
(3) Gridlock that will block enactment of legislation caught in it.
It is at this point too soon to tell how many of each kind of legislative initiative will surface early. A round-up of what Washington insiders expect is below.
NAIFA Staff Contacts: Diane Boyle – Senior Vice President – Government Relations, at DBoyle@naifa.org; Judi Carsrud – Assistant Vice President – Government Relations, at jcarsrud@naifa.org, or Michael Hedge – Director – Government Relations, at mhedge@naifa.org |